The Imminent Meltdown
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- Published on Thursday, 01 July 2010 17:58
- Written by Nick Scott
Let us suppose, in response to claims challenging the correlation between greenhouse gas emissions and increased global warming, that the IPCC is actually wrong, the planet is in fact descending into a magnificent cooling spell. Hypothetically, let us venture to suppose that the projection had some veracity and that the only viable solution entailed a method of heat-trapping via geoengineering. Climate change opponents, primarily allied with the interests of market ideologues and fossil fuel companies, have unintentionally cornered themselves by utilizing this cooling card. By identifying technologies capable of mitigating a “naturally” occurring global catastrophe, people opposed to government involvement may be troubled.
Would our society be able to proceed in a completely market-oriented world, devoid of government provision, and led by decisions of the consumer? How would global markets direct themselves to allocate the much needed resources for such a task? Would we, as consumers, be responsible for the purchase of personal sulfur dioxide seed missile launchers? Should each individual voluntarily take it upon themselves to coat the land with white reflective paint and outsource the work of heating the remaining ice sheets to maximize heat absorption? Could reliance on charity alone meet the resource needs of a project of such large scale? Given such a scenario, homoeconomicus, a creation of market ideologues, would be compelled to dispel all rational self interest in favor of actions of sacrifice for the common good. Can one properly rely on the efficacy of a market-based approach to all types of climate disruption, natural and anthropogenic?
It is unfortunate that one has to go as far as posing fictitious hypothetical scenarios to unearth the truth at the heart of the denial movement. Sadly, the media has done an abysmal job posing such questions and keeping the public duly informed. There is a complete disconnect between the consensus within scientific circles and the apathetic attitude of the general public. Unfortunately, the Earth is warming, rapidly, and the consensus has now moved towards geoengineered dimming as a necessary remedy for a future aligned with worst case projections. The Arctic is 40% disintegrated and estimates from scientists assert that it could be gone by 2025. Each year atmospheric measurements of CO2 levels mark a steady rise of 2 ppm (parts per million). The atmosphere is over 100 ppm above the preindustrial level of 250 ppm and estimates predict that the planet will be well above 450ppm by mid-century unless dramatic cuts are taken immediately. These figures are unprecedented for a relatively stable Holocene period of 12,000 years. Carbon is being sunk into land, air, and sea. Ocean acidification, a result of the hydrological cycle sinking CO2 during rainfall, is disrupting the formation of calcium carbonate-based mollusk shells and coral reef ecosystems. Snowpack and glacier ice levels and winter duration have shown marked average declines, especially at higher elevations.
Responsibility for a global mean temperature increase of 1 degree C rests directly on humans. The alarm is that while the global average of 1 degree seems meager, the poles, in particularly the most northerly regions of the hemisphere such as Greenland, Northern Canada, Russia, and the Arctic polar ice cap, measure an average temperature rise of between 4-6 degrees C. As we have seen through satellite photos of the Arctic, 4 degrees has been enough to set off a cascade of melting. The primary concern among scientists is that if heating releases the vast methane deposits of the Northern Siberia and Greenland permafrost, the CO2 equivalent concentrations will trigger a runoff in greenhouse gas emissions beyond 1000 ppm, a level that would exert misery on the world.
The crisis demands a sense of urgency and seriousness. Regardless of whether the climate is under the influence of man, machine, or nature, climate disruption will not be solved without the collective international effort of both public and private leaders and the individual actions of their respective citizens.
